Press releases overview
The dilemma of the Czech National Bank
  • The Czech National Bank raises the key interest rate amid accelerating inflation and despite a slowing economy.
  • I show the macroeconomic dynamics in a small open economy model for the Czech economy. Given muted growth in the Euro Area, the CNB’s move is ambiguous.
The strategic review of the ECB: Disappointing the critics
  • From “below but close” to a symmetric inflation target implies low-for-longer.
  • QE works and is part of the toolkit but negative side effects must be part of the central bank’s economic analysis.
  • Contrary to public perception, inflation mismeasurement has balanced effects on the consumer price index.
Quarterly Macroeconomic Outlook: Fragile growth
  • Eurozone: Stabilization at a moderate pace
  • Central and Eastern Europe: Gearing down
  • Central banks: Pause
Die negativen ökonomischen Konsequenzen der langfristig niedrigen Zinsen
Stabilization at a moderate pace
  • Business and sentiment indicators have stabilized at low levels, a turning point has not yet been fully confirmed by the data.
  • The German economy has avoided a technical recession in Q3 with 0.1 % GDP growth. Manufacturing industries remain in contraction.
  • Growth in CEE countries continues to be above the EU average, being particularly strong in Poland and Hungary.
  1. USA: The ‘Mid-cycle’ adjustment in key interest rates is done.
  2. Euro Area: Germany could be the weakest link
Load more